Dr. Michael James McCarthy

Persistent multiyear drought (MYD) events pose a growing threat to nature and humans in a changing climate. We identified and inventoried global MYDs by detecting spatiotemporally contiguous climatic anomalies, showing that MYDs have become drier, hotter, and led to increasingly diminished vegetation greenness. The global terrestrial land affected by MYDs has increased at a rate of 49,279 ± 14,771 square kilometers per year from 1980 to 2018. Temperate grasslands have exhibited the greatest declines in vegetation greenness during MYDs, whereas boreal and tropical forests have had comparably minor responses. With MYDs becoming more common, this global quantitative inventory of the occurrence, severity, trend, and impact of MYDs provides an important benchmark for facilitating more effective and collaborative preparedness toward mitigation of and adaptation to such extreme events.

Mountains are important suppliers of freshwater to downstream areas, affecting large populations in particular in High Mountain Asia (HMA). Yet, the propagation of water from HMA headwaters to downstream areas is not fully understood, as interactions in the mountain water cycle between the cryo-, hydro- and biosphere remain elusive. We review the definition of blue and green water fluxes as liquid water that contributes to runoff at the outlet of the selected domain (blue) and water lost to the atmosphere through vapor fluxes, that is evaporation from water, ground, and interception plus transpiration (green) and propose to add the term white water to account for the (often neglected) evaporation and sublimation from snow and ice. We provide an assessment of models that can simulate the cryo-hydro-biosphere continuum and the interactions between spheres in high mountain catchments, going beyond disciplinary separations. Land surface models are uniquely able to account for such complexity, since they solve the coupled fluxes of water, energy, and carbon between the land surface and atmosphere. Due to the mechanistic nature of such models, specific variables can be compared systematically to independent remote sensing observations–providing vital insights into model accuracy and enabling the understanding of the complex watersheds of HMA. We discuss recent developments in spaceborne earth observation products that have the potential to support catchment modeling in high mountain regions. We then present a pilot study application of the mechanistic land surface model Tethys & Chloris to a glacierized watershed in the Nepalese Himalayas and discuss the use of high-resolution earth observation data to constrain the meteorological forcing uncertainty and validate model results. We use these insights to highlight the remaining challenges and future opportunities that remote sensing data presents for land surface modeling in HMA.

High elevation headwater catchments are complex hydrological systems that seasonally buffer water and release it in the form of snow and ice melt, modulating downstream runoff regimes and water availability. In High Mountain Asia (HMA), where a wide range of climates from semi-arid to monsoonal exist, the importance of the cryospheric contributions to the water budget varies with the amount and seasonal distribution of precipitation. Losses due to evapotranspiration and sublimation are to date largely unquantified components of the water budget in such catchments, although they can be comparable in magnitude to glacier melt contributions to streamflow. Here, we simulate the hydrology of three high elevation headwater catchments in distinct climates in HMA over 10 years using an ecohydrological model geared towards high-mountain areas including snow and glaciers, forced with reanalysis data. Our results show that evapotranspiration and sublimation together are most important at the semi-arid site, Kyzylsu, on the northernmost slopes of the Pamir mountain range. Here, the evaporative loss amounts to 28% of the water throughput, which we define as the total water added to, or removed from the water balance within a year. In comparison, evaporative losses are 19% at the Central Himalayan site Langtang and 13% at the wettest site, 24 K, on the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau. At the three sites, respectively, sublimation removes 15%, 13% and 6% of snowfall, while evapotranspiration removes the equivalent of 76%, 28% and 19% of rainfall. In absolute terms, and across a comparable elevation range, the highest ET flux is 413 mm yr⁻¹ at 24 K, while the highest sublimation flux is 91 mm yr⁻¹ at Kyzylsu. During warm and dry years, glacier melt was found to only partially compensate for the annual supply deficit.

Glaciers are crucial water resources in the Third Pole (the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings) and are shrinking in response to climate change. Glacier albedo is an expression of glacier interactions with climate and dust/black carbon, and albedo reduction enhances glacier mass loss, but its changes and potential drivers remain poorly quantified. We leverage satellite observations to explore the variability of glacier albedo and understand its sensitivity to potential drivers and its future evolution. We find that glacier albedo has declined during 2001–2020, but high interannual variability is also an important signal. These variations are highly sensitive to air temperature and snow conditions and to nearby dust/black carbon emission sources. Future changes to these drivers will lead to further decreases of 2.9%–12.5% in glacier albedo by 2100 under different warming scenarios. These findings highlight the importance of albedo in glacier future evolution and the urgency of action to mitigate climate warming.

The near-surface boundary layer can mediate the response of mountain glaciers to external climate, cooling the overlying air and promoting a density-driven glacier wind. The fundamental processes are conceptually well understood, though the magnitudes of cooling and presence of glacier winds are poorly quantified in space and time, increasing the forcing uncertainty for melt models. We utilize a new data set of on-glacier meteorological measurements on three neighboring glaciers in the Swiss Alps to explore their distinct response to regional climate under the extreme 2022 summer. We find that synoptic wind origins and local terrain modifications, not only glacier size, play an important role in the ability of a glacier to cool the near-surface air. Warm air intrusions from valley or synoptically-driven winds onto the glacier can occur between ∼19% and 64% of the time and contribute between 3% and 81% of the total sensible heat flux to the surface during warm afternoon hours, depending on the fetch of the glacier flowline and its susceptibility to boundary layer erosion. In the context of extreme summer warmth, indicative of future conditions, the boundary layer cooling (up to 6.5°C cooler than its surroundings) and resultant katabatic wind flow are highly heterogeneous between the study glaciers, highlighting the complex and likely non-linear response of glaciers to an uncertain future.

High Mountain Asia (HMA) is among the most vulnerable water towers globally and yet future projections of water availability in and from its high-mountain catchments remain uncertain, as their hydrologic response to ongoing environmental changes is complex. Mechanistic modeling approaches incorporating cryospheric, hydrological, and vegetation processes in high spatial, temporal, and physical detail have never been applied for high-elevation catchments of HMA. We use a land surface model at high spatial and temporal resolution (100 m and hourly) to simulate the coupled dynamics of energy, water, and vegetation for the 350 km² Langtang catchment (Nepal). We compare our model outputs for one hydrological year against a large set of observations to gain insight into the partitioning of the water balance at the subseasonal scale and across elevation bands. During the simulated hydrological year, we find that evapotranspiration is a key component of the total water balance, as it causes about the equivalent of 20% of all the available precipitation or 154% of the water production from glacier melt in the basin to return directly to the atmosphere. The depletion of the cryospheric water budget is dominated by snow melt, but at high elevations is primarily dictated by snow and ice sublimation. Snow sublimation is the dominant vapor flux (49%) at the catchment scale, accounting for the equivalent of 11% of snowfall, 17% of snowmelt, and 75% of ice melt, respectively. We conclude that simulations should consider sublimation and other evaporative fluxes explicitly, as otherwise water balance estimates can be ill-quantified.

Ice cliff distribution plays a major role in determining the melt of debris-covered glaciers but its controls are largely unknown. We assembled a data set of 37,537 ice cliffs and determined their characteristics across 86 debris-covered glaciers within High Mountain Asia (HMA). We find that 38.9% of the cliffs are stream-influenced, 19.5% pond-influenced and 19.7% are crevasse-originated. Surface velocity is the main predictor of cliff distribution at both local and glacier scale, indicating its dependence on the dynamic state and hence evolution stage of debris-covered glacier tongues. Supraglacial ponds contribute to maintaining cliffs in areas of thicker debris, but this is only possible if water accumulates at the surface. Overall, total cliff density decreases exponentially with debris thickness as soon as the debris layer reaches a thickness of over 10 cm.

The presence of a developed boundary layer decouples a glacier's response from ambient conditions, suggesting that sensitivity to climate change is increased by glacier retreat. To test this hypothesis, we explore six years of distributed meteorological data on a small Swiss glacier in the period 2001-2022. Large glacier fragmentation has occurred since 2001 (-35% area change up to 2022) coinciding with notable frontal retreat, an observed switch from down-glacier katabatic to up-glacier valley winds and an increased sensitivity (ratio) of on-glacier to off-glacier temperature. As the glacier ceases to develop density-driven katabatic winds, sensible heat fluxes on the glacier are increasingly determined by the conditions occurring outside the boundary layer of the glacier, sealing the glacier's demise as the climate continues to warm and experience an increased frequency of extreme summers.

Currently, about 12 %–13 % of High Mountain Asia’s glacier area is debris-covered, which alters its surface mass balance. However, in regional-scale modelling approaches, debris-covered glaciers are typically treated as clean-ice glaciers, leading to a bias when modelling their future evolution. Here, we present a new approach for modelling debris area and thickness evolution, applicable from single glaciers to the global scale. We derive a parameterization and implement it as a module into the Global Glacier Evolution Model (GloGEMflow), a combined mass-balance ice-flow model. The module is initialized with both glacier-specific observations of the debris' spatial distribution and estimates of debris thickness. These data sets account for the fact that debris can either enhance or reduce surface melt depending on thickness. Our model approach also enables representing the spatiotemporal evolution of debris extent and thickness. We calibrate and evaluate the module on a selected subset of glaciers and apply GloGEMflow using different climate scenarios to project the future evolution of all glaciers in High Mountain Asia until 2100. Explicitly accounting for debris cover has only a minor effect on the projected mass loss, which is in line with previous projections. Despite this small effect, we argue that the improved process representation is of added value when aiming at capturing intra-glacier scales, i.e. spatial mass-balance distribution. Depending on the climate scenario, the mean debris-cover fraction is expected to increase, while mean debris thickness is projected to show only minor changes, although large local thickening is expected. To isolate the influence of explicitly accounting for supraglacial debris cover, we re-compute glacier evolution without the debris-cover module. We show that glacier geometry, area, volume, and flow velocity evolve differently, especially at the level of individual glaciers. This highlights the importance of accounting for debris cover and its spatiotemporal evolution when projecting future glacier changes.

The Indian and East Asian summer monsoons shape the melt and accumulation patterns of glaciers in High Mountain Asia in complex ways due to the interaction of persistent cloud cover, large temperature ranges, high atmospheric water content and high precipitation rates. Glacier energy- and mass-balance modelling using in situ measurements offers insights into the ways in which surface processes are shaped by climatic regimes. In this study, we use a full energy- and mass-balance model and seven on-glacier automatic weather station datasets from different parts of the Central and Eastern Himalaya to investigate how monsoon conditions influence the glacier surface energy and mass balance. In particular, we look at how debris-covered and debris-free glaciers respond differently to monsoonal conditions. The radiation budget primarily controls the melt of clean-ice glaciers, but turbulent fluxes play an important role in modulating the melt energy on debris-covered glaciers. The sensible heat flux decreases during core monsoon, but the latent heat flux cools the surface due to evaporation of liquid water. This interplay of radiative and turbulent fluxes causes debris-covered glacier melt rates to stay almost constant through the different phases of the monsoon. Ice melt under thin debris, on the other hand, is amplified by both the dark surface and the turbulent fluxes, which intensify melt during monsoon through surface heating and condensation. Pre-monsoon snow cover can considerably delay melt onset and have a strong impact on the seasonal mass balance. Intermittent monsoon snow cover lowers the melt rates at high elevation. This work is fundamental to the understanding of the present and future Himalayan cryosphere and water budget, while informing and motivating further glacier- and catchment-scale research using process-based models.

Glaciers are key components of the mountain water towers of Asia and are vital for downstream domestic, agricultural, and industrial uses. The glacier mass loss rate over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau is among the highest in Asia and has accelerated in recent decades. This acceleration has been attributed to increased warming, but the mechanisms behind these glaciers' high sensitivity to warming remain unclear, while the influence of changes in precipitation over the past decades is poorly quantified. Here, we reconstruct glacier mass changes and catchment runoff since 1975 at a benchmark glacier, Parlung No. 4, to shed light on the drivers of recent mass losses for the monsoonal, spring-accumulation glaciers of the Tibetan Plateau. Our modeling demonstrates how a temperature increase (mean of 0.39 ∘C ⋅dec-1 since 1990) has accelerated mass loss rates by altering both the ablation and accumulation regimes in a complex manner. The majority of the post-2000 mass loss occurred during the monsoon months, caused by simultaneous decreases in the solid precipitation ratio (from 0.70 to 0.56) and precipitation amount (-10%), leading to reduced monsoon accumulation (-26%). Higher solid precipitation in spring (+18%) during the last two decades was increasingly important in mitigating glacier mass loss by providing mass to the glacier and protecting it from melting in the early monsoon. With bare ice exposed to warmer temperatures for longer periods, icemelt and catchment discharge have unsustainably intensified since the start of the 21st century, raising concerns for long-term water supply and hazard occurrence in the region.

Melt from supraglacial ice cliffs is an important contributor to the mass loss of debris-covered glaciers. However, ice cliff contribution is difficult to quantify as they are highly dynamic features, and the paucity of observations of melt rates and their variability leads to large modelling uncertainties. We quantify monsoon season melt and 3D evolution of four ice cliffs over two debris-covered glaciers in High Mountain Asia (Langtang Glacier, Nepal, and 24K Glacier, China) at very high resolution using terrestrial photogrammetry applied to imagery captured from time-lapse cameras installed on lateral moraines. We derive weekly flow-corrected digital elevation models (DEMs) of the glacier surface with a maximum vertical bias of ±0.2 m for Langtang Glacier and ±0.05 m for 24K Glacier and use change detection to determine distributed melt rates at the surfaces of the ice cliffs throughout the study period. We compare the measured melt patterns with those derived from a 3D energy balance model to derive the contribution of the main energy fluxes. We find that ice cliff melt varies considerably throughout the melt season, with maximum melt rates of 5 to 8 cm d^-1, and their average melt rates are 11-14 (Langtang) and 4.5 (24K) times higher than the surrounding debris-covered ice. Our results highlight the influence of redistributed supraglacial debris on cliff melt. At both sites, ice cliff albedo is influenced by the presence of thin debris at the ice cliff surface, which is largely controlled on 24K Glacier by liquid precipitation events that wash away this debris. Slightly thicker or patchy debris reduces melt by 1-3 cm d^-1 at all sites. Ultimately, our observations show a strong spatio-temporal variability in cliff area at each site, which is controlled by supraglacial streams and ponds and englacial cavities that promote debris slope destabilisation and the lateral expansion of the cliffs. These findings highlight the need to better represent processes of debris redistribution in ice cliff models, to in turn improve estimates of ice cliff contribution to glacier melt and the long-term geomorphological evolution of debris-covered glacier surfaces.

The current Chilean megadrought has led to acute water shortages in central Chile since 2010. Glaciers have provided vital fresh water to the region's rivers, but the quantity, timing and sustainability of that provision remain unclear. Here we combine in-situ, remote sensing and climate reanalysis data to show that from 2010 to 2018 during the megadrought, unsustainable imbalance ablation of glaciers (ablation not balanced by new snowfall) strongly buffered the late-summer discharge of the Maipo River, a primary source of water to Santiago. If there had been no glaciers, water availability would have been reduced from December through May, with a 31 ± 19% decrease during March. Our results indicate that while the annual contributions of imbalance ablation to river discharge during the megadrought have been small compared to those from precipitation and sustainable balance ablation, they have nevertheless been a substantial input to a hydrological system that was already experiencing high water stress. The water-equivalent volume of imbalance ablation generated in the Maipo Basin between 2010 and 2018 was 740 × 10⁶ m³ (19 ± 12 mm yr^-1), approximately 3.4 times the capacity of the basin's El Yeso Reservoir. This is equivalent to 14% of Santiago's potable water use in that time, while total glacier ablation was equivalent to 59%. We show that glacier retreat will exacerbate river discharge deficits and further jeopardise water availability in central Chile if precipitation deficits endure, and conjecture that these effects will be amplified by climatic warming.

Supraglacial debris strongly modulates glacier melt rates and can be decisive for ice dynamics and mountain hydrology. It is ubiquitous in High-Mountain Asia, yet because its thickness and supply rate from local topography are poorly known, our ability to forecast regional glacier change and streamflow is limited. Here we combined remote sensing and numerical modelling to resolve supraglacial debris thickness by altitude for 4689 glaciers in High-Mountain Asia, and debris-supply rate to 4141 of those glaciers. Our results reveal extensively thin supraglacial debris and high spatial variability in both debris thickness and supply rate. Debris-supply rate increases with the temperature and slope of debris-supply slopes regionally, and debris thickness increases as ice flow decreases locally. Our centennial-scale estimates of debris-supply rate are typically an order of magnitude or more lower than millennial-scale estimates of headwall-erosion rate from Beryllium-10 cosmogenic nuclides, potentially reflecting episodic debris supply to the region’s glaciers.

Ice cliffs are common on debris-covered glaciers and have relatively high melt rates due to their direct exposure to incoming radiation. Previous studies have shown that their number and relative area can change considerably from year to year, but this variability has not been explored, in part because available cliff observations are irregular. Here, we systematically mapped and tracked ice cliffs across four debris-covered glaciers in High Mountain Asia for every late ablation season from 2009 to 2019 using high-resolution multi-spectral satellite imagery. We then quantified the processes occurring at the feature scale to train a stochastic birth-death model to represent the cliff population dynamics. Our results show that while the cliff relative area can change by up to 20% from year to year, the natural long-term variability is constrained, thus defining a glacier-specific cliff carrying capacity. In a subsequent step, the inclusion of external drivers related to climate, glacier dynamics, and hydrology highlights the influence of these variables on the cliff population dynamics, which is usually not a direct one due to the complexity and interdependence of the processes taking place at the glacier surface. In some extreme cases (here, a glacier surge), these external drivers may lead to a reorganization of the cliffs at the glacier surface and a change in the natural variability. These results have implications for the melt of debris-covered glaciers, in addition to showing the high rate of changes at their surface and highlighting some of the links between cliff population and glacier state.

This project explored the integrated use of satellite, ground observations and hydrological distributed models to support water resources assessment and monitoring in High Mountain Asia (HMA). Hydrological data products were generated taking advantage of the synergies of European and Chinese data assets and space-borne observation systems. Energy-budget-based glacier mass balance and hydrological models driven by satellite observations were developed. These models can be applied to describe glacier-melt contribution to river flow. Satellite hydrological data products were used for forcing, calibration, validation and data assimilation in distributed river basin models. A pilot study was carried out on the Red River basin. Multiple hydrological data products were generated using the data collected by Chinese satellites. A new Evapo-Transpiration (ET) dataset from 2000 to 2018 was generated, including plant transpiration, soil evaporation, rainfall interception loss, snow/ice sublimation and open water evaporation. Higher resolution data were used to characterize glaciers and their response to environmental forcing. These studies focused on the Parlung Zangbo Basin, where glacier facies were mapped with GaoFeng (GF), Sentinal-2/Multi-Spectral Imager (S2/MSI) and Landsat8/Operational Land Imager (L8/OLI) data. The geodetic mass balance was estimated between 2000 and 2017 with Zi-Yuan (ZY)-3 Stereo Images and the SRTM DEM. Surface velocity was studied with Landsat5/Thematic Mapper (L5/TM), L8/OLI and S2/MSI data over the period 2013–2019. An updated method was developed to improve the retrieval of glacier albedo by correcting glacier reflectance for anisotropy, and a new dataset on glacier albedo was generated for the period 2001–2020. A detailed glacier energy and mass balance model was developed with the support of field experiments at the Parlung No. 4 Glacier and the 24 K Glacier, both in the Tibetan Plateau. Besides meteorological measurements, the field experiments included glaciological and hydrological measurements. The energy balance model was formulated in terms of enthalpy for easier treatment of water phase transitions. The model was applied to assess the spatial variability in glacier melt. In the Parlung No. 4 Glacier, the accumulated glacier melt was between 1.5 and 2.5 m w.e. in the accumulation zone and between 4.5 and 6.0 m w.e. in the ablation zone, reaching 6.5 m w.e. at the terminus. The seasonality in the glacier mass balance was observed by combining intensive field campaigns with continuous automatic observations. The linkage of the glacier and snowpack mass balance with water resources in a river basin was analyzed in the Chiese (Italy) and Heihe (China) basins by developing and applying integrated hydrological models using satellite retrievals in multiple ways. The model FEST-WEB was calibrated using retrievals of Land Surface Temperature (LST) to map soil hydrological properties. A watershed model was developed by coupling ecohydrological and socioeconomic systems. Integrated modeling is supported by an updated and parallelized data assimilation system. The latter exploits retrievals of brightness temperature (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer, AMSR), LST (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, MODIS), precipitation (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and FengYun (FY)-2D) and in-situ measurements. In the case study on the Red River Basin, a new algorithm has been applied to disaggregate the SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) soil moisture retrievals by making use of the correlation between evaporative fraction and soil moisture.

Glaciers in High Mountain Asia generate meltwater that supports the water needs of 250 million people, but current knowledge of annual accumulation and ablation is limited to sparse field measurements biased in location and glacier size. Here, we present altitudinally-resolved specific mass balances (surface, internal, and basal combined) for 5527 glaciers in High Mountain Asia for 2000–2016, derived by correcting observed glacier thinning patterns for mass redistribution due to ice flow. We find that 41% of glaciers accumulated mass over less than 20% of their area, and only 60% ± 10% of regional annual ablation was compensated by accumulation. Even without 21^st century warming, 21% ± 1% of ice volume will be lost by 2100 due to current climatic-geometric imbalance, representing a reduction in glacier ablation into rivers of 28% ± 1%. The ablation of glaciers in the Himalayas and Tien Shan was mostly unsustainable and ice volume in these regions will reduce by at least 30% by 2100. The most important and vulnerable glacier-fed river basins (Amu Darya, Indus, Syr Darya, Tarim Interior) were supplied with >50% sustainable glacier ablation but will see long-term reductions in ice mass and glacier meltwater supply regardless of the Karakoram Anomaly.

Glacier albedo determines the net shortwave radiation absorbed at the glacier surface and plays a crucial role in glacier energy and mass balance. Remote sensing techniques are efficient means to retrieve glacier surface albedo over large and inaccessible areas and to study its variability. However, corrections of anisotropic reflectance of glacier surface have been established for specific shortwave bands only, such as Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (L5/TM) band 2 and band 4, which is a major limitation of current retrievals of glacier broadband albedo. In this study, we calibrated and evaluated four anisotropy correction models for glacier snow and ice, applicable to visible, near-infrared and shortwave-infrared wavelengths using airborne datasets of Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF). We then tested the ability of the best-performing anisotropy correction model, referred to from here on as the ‘updated model’, to retrieve albedo from L5/TM, Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (L8/OLI) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery, and evaluated these results with field measurements collected on eight glaciers around the world. Our results show that the updated model: (1) can accurately estimate anisotropic factors of reflectance for snow and ice surfaces; (2) generally performs better than prior approaches for L8/OLI albedo retrieval but is not appropriate for L5/TM; (3) generally retrieves MODIS albedo better than the MODIS standard albedo product (MCD43A3) in both absolute values and glacier albedo temporal evolution, i.e., exhibiting both fewer gaps and better agreement with field obser-vations. As the updated model enables anisotropy correction of a maximum of 10 multispectral bands and is implemented in Google Earth Engine (GEE), it is promising for observing and analyz-ing glacier albedo at large spatial scales.

The thickness of glaciers in High-Mountain Asia (HMA) is critical in determining when the ice reserve will be lost as these glaciers thin but is remarkably poorly known because very few measurements have been made. Through a series of ground-based and airborne field tests, we have adapted a low-frequency ice-penetrating radar developed originally for Antarctic over-snow surveys, for deployment as a helicopter-borne system to increase the number of measurements. The manoeuvrability provided by helicopters and the ability of our system to detect glacier beds through thick, dirty, temperate ice makes it well suited to increase greatly the sample of measurements available for calibrating ice thickness models on the regional and global scale. The Bedmap Himalayas radar-survey system can reduce the uncertainty in present-day ice volumes and therefore in projections of when HMA's river catchments will lose this hydrological buffer against drought.