Does the wisdom of crowds lead to "better" avalanche forecasts?
Date:
Location:
SLF Davos, Hörsaal & by Zoom
Organised by:
SLF
Speakers:
Frank Techel
Languages:
English
Type of event:
Presentations and colloquia
Audience:
Everybody interested in this topic
Three of the eight avalanche forecasters at SLF are on forecast duty each day during the winter. Their main task is producing the avalanche bulletin for the following day. In preparation for the afternoon forecaster briefing, where they compile the avalanche bulletin, each of these three forecasters independently creates a forecast. According to jury theorems, commonly known as the wisdom of crowds, combining multiple independent judgments from competent individuals and aggregating them can enhance the reliability and, consequently, the quality of these judgments.
In collaboration with Michael Morreau, philosopher at University of Tromsø (Norway) working on the theory of social choice, we analyzed the forecasts produced at SLF. Specifically, we wanted to know: how much improvement can be observed in the forecasts made by the group compared to those prepared by individuals? And how is forecast performance affected in the presence of bias?
The analysis revealed partly unexpected but valuable insights, permitting to adjust the procedures during the forecaster's afternoon briefing.
Zoom-Link: https://wsl.zoom.us/j/66481138908?pwd=T05ZazZKWEQ1THYrL3JFR2NaYzFMQT09