Alpine plants under climate change: gaps in the transnational mosaic of protected areas

The Alps are one of the largest semi-natural areas in Europe. They are home to 4500 plant species alone - not counting mosses - and thus around a third of the entire flora of Western Europe. 400 of these plants live exclusively in the Alps. "This shows how important this mountain range is for Europe's biodiversity," says Yohann Chauvier-Mendes. Together with an international team of researchers, at the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL the ecologist has analysed what the mosaic of protected areas in the Alps looks like across all seven Alpine countries and where it needs to be expanded to preserve this biodiversity -now and in the future.

This is because climate change is causing plants to migrate, in most cases upwards. This means that many of them will reshuffle their ranges and therefore may move out of or into protected areas. Yet, climate change will also influence the agricultural use of the region, which in turn has an impact on the distribution of Alpine plants, e. g.  when the forest overgrows abandoned pastures. Such climate change impacts could cause current protected areas to become less important in the future or new biodiversity hotspots to emerge outside of them – a process that happens without regard for national borders.

To find out how the biodiversity of the Alpine region will change in the future and to be able to plan the optimal distribution of protected areas, so they – even now – include more biodiversity, the researchers generated digital distribution maps of individual plant species. Firstly, under the current climate and land use, and secondly under such scenarios as they are expected in the years 2050 and 2080. "For the first time in a study of this kind, we not only looked at the number of species, but also considered how unique each one is in terms of genetic history and ecological role" explains WSL ecologist Niklaus Zimmermann, one of the lead authors of the study.

In these maps, they included existing protected areas whose conservation status corresponds to the Emerald-Natura 2000 network and categories I and II of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) – e.g., the Swiss national park. Based on this and with the help of conservation planning simulations, they then identified areas that allow to best enhance the protection of the plant biodiversity of the Alpine region – for now and by 2050 and 2080.

The catchphrase "30 by 30" summarises the third of the 23 goals of the Kunming - Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework: This states that by 2030, at least 30 per cent of the Earth's land, coastal, and water areas should be protected by protected areas and other "effective area-based conservation measures". The framework was adopted by the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity at the 15th United Nations Biodiversity Conference in Montreal. The "30 by 30" target also emphasises, among other things, the connectivity of conservation areas and their integration into larger landscapes.