Machine-Learning-Aided Forecasting of Drought-Related Extremes (MaLeFiX)
Konrad Bogner
Matthias Buchecker
Annie Yuan-Yuan Chang
Daniel Farinotti
Martin Gossner
Elisabeth Maidl
Robert McElderry
Loïc Pellissier
Gianni Boris Pezzatti
Massimiliano Zappa
As a result of climate change, the frequency and severity of droughts in Switzerland is set to increase, with potentially devastating impacts on the environment, economy, and human health. To help mitigate these risks, the MaLeFiX project is developing an interdisciplinary platform that will provide comprehensive four-week forecasts of drought-related extremes – buying stakeholders valuable time to act.
Droughts are complex phenomena that have significant implications for many aspects of the environment and human life. Understanding droughts and predicting their impacts is crucial for effective preparation and mitigation. The MaLeFiX project is therefore developing a new interdisciplinary information system to provide comprehensive four-week drought forecasts for the whole of Switzerland, integrating advanced models across hydrology, forest fires, glacier balance, aquatic biodiversity, groundwater, and bark beetle dynamics. Utilizing AI and meteorological data, the platform will deliver accurate and user-friendly information to help policymakers, stakeholders, scientists, and the public make informed decisions.
Critical Information for Timely Action ¶
The reliability of single forecasts decreases significantly the further they look into the future, making accurate predictions beyond one to two weeks challenging. To overcome this, the MaLeFiX platform uses ensemble forecasts. Its advanced models are fed with meteorological data from MeteoSwiss, which provides monthly forecasts with daily temporal resolution twice weekly. Each forecast is repeated 51 times with slight variations in initial conditions, allowing the MaLeFiX platform to estimate the probability of extreme events up to three to four weeks in advance.
Key MaLeFiX developments to date:
- AI-Based Models: Two new AI models have been created to assess forest fire risks and calculate water temperature in order to evaluate the danger of stress to aquatic life forms, enhancing the accuracy of these critical forecasts.
- Model Harmonization: Existing models for hydrology, glacier balance, and bark beetle dynamics have been refined to work seamlessly with the same input data, enabling clear analysis and interpretation of the overall situation and potential exacerbating factors.
With the harmonization of models for forecasting now complete, the MaLeFiX team is currently working on integrating the predicted impacts – such as where a potential bark beetle outbreak might occur and how it might develop over time – into the platform. The ultimate goal is to provide users with a comprehensive overview of the overall drought situation by displaying the possible combined impacts of various drought-related processes (e.g., low runoff and high water temperature). Testing the platform with potential extreme events using existing and modified climate scenarios is now also underway.
User-Focused Design ¶
One of the significant challenges the MaLeFiX project must address is the integration of diverse information into a single, user-friendly platform. To achieve this, social scientists have conducted extensive surveys and interviews with representatives from the public sector, industry, and business. Their insights are being utilized to ensure the platform meets a wide range of user needs and expectations.
Upon completion, the MaLeFiX platform will offer several important benefits:
- For the Public: Easy access to understandable and actionable drought information.
- For Scientists: A unified tool that enhances research and collaboration across various disciplines, focusing on AI and probabilistic forecasting.
- For Policymakers and Stakeholders: Reliable data to inform policies and strategies for drought mitigation.
- For the Media: Accurate and timely information to report on actual and forecasted drought conditions and impacts.
In the face of the risks and uncertainties associated with a changing climate, the MaLeFiX platform will offer its users the opportunity to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of drought-related extremes – helping Switzerland to achieve a more resilient, and less uncertain, future.
The MaLeFix project is part of WSL’s Extremes Research Program, which aims to equip Swiss stakeholders with the strategies and resources needed to meet the challenges of future extreme events.