SSP-CH: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for Switzerland
2022 - 2025
Cooperation FinancingIn a broad-based participatory process, possible, plausible visions of the future of our society are developed depending on relevant drivers and their characteristics. The narratives developed and the qualitative and quantitative descriptions of the relevant drivers are intended to serve as a basis for long-term, strategic planning and decision-making processes.
What will Switzerland look like in 2100? What will influence our society at the end of the 21st century?
Socio-economic systems are complex. They are non-linear, disruptive, have feedback loops and tipping points, their development is uncertain and difficult to predict. The future can neither be observed nor measured. Scenarios that describe possible futures are therefore increasingly being used to develop long-term strategies and as a basis for decision-making. Scenarios are not predictions or forecasts, but "a plausible and simplified description of how the future might unfold based on a coherent and consistent set of assumptions about the key driving forces and relationships".
The Socio-Economic Scenarios for Switzerland project is funded by the National Centre for Climate Services NCCS and carried out within the framework of the program "Decision-making basis for dealing with climate change in Switzerland" (NCCS-Impacts).
Methodical approach ¶
Four steps were taken to develop the SSP-CH. In the first step, we conducted focus discussions on 22 socio-economic areas with 59 scientists from 20 Swiss universities in German- and French-speaking Switzerland. In the discussions, future projections for the year 2100 were developed for the socioeconomic areas. In a second step, these future projections were examined for consistency (i.e. how well they fit together in terms of their developments) using scenario calculation software. Consistent projections were combined into four raw scenarios. A fifth raw scenario was developed by the researchers based on the international Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the future projections from step one. In the fourth step, the raw scenarios were discussed and enriched with content in five stakeholder workshops in German- and French-speaking Switzerland. The workshops were open to all in order to involve people with diverse professional and personal backgrounds in the development of the SSPs. In the final step, the results from the workshops were checked by the researchers for consistency with the raw scenarios and developed into the SSPs for Switzerland (SSP-CH).
Modular structure of the project ¶
The Socio-Economic Scenarios for Switzerland SSP-CH project consists of five modules.
In Module 1, the methodological approach is designed, needs are clarified and stakeholders and experts are identified for the scenario process.
In Module 2, SSP narratives are developed for Switzerland: Qualitative socio-economic scenarios will be developed using an explorative, open-ended approach, with the involvement of relevant experts and stakeholders.
In Module 3, land use and CO2 emissions will be modeled for each developed future scenario (SSP1-CH-SSP5-CH) up to the year 2100, once with and once without additional climate policies (SPAs see below).
In Module 4, Shared Policy Assumptions for Switzerland (SPA-CH) are formulated.
In Module 5, a product range is developed from the results of Modules 1-4 for appropriate communication to various target groups.
The Global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSPs ¶
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways were created for the 6th IPCC report. They describe five different possible global futures of our society in the 21st century and this in the area of tension between the challenges of climate protection and climate adaptation. For these five narratives, the population, gross domestic product and degree of urbanization (at country level) as well as the areas of energy use, land use, emissions and air pollutants (for 5 world regions) were modelled. All data can be obtained from the IIASA database.
The global SSPs (basic SSPs) are supplemented by a large number of national, regional or sector-specific SSPs (extended SSPs).
The five narratives describe the following possible socio-economic futures:
SSP1: Sustainable and cooperative society with a low-carbon economy and high adaptability to structural disruptions and readiness for transformation. (Minor challenge in climate protection and adaptation)
SSP2: Continue as before: Moderate economic growth, continued use of fossil fuels. Environmental pollution continues. (Medium challenge in climate protection and adaptation)
SSP3: Increasing protectionism, deglobalization and competition. Demand for resources is high, power imbalances and conflicts arise. (Major challenge in climate change mitigation and adaptation)
SSP4: Unequal distribution of resources between and within countries. Consequences range from weak social cohesion to unrest. (Minor challenge in climate protection and major challenge in climate adaptation)
SSP5: Technology-dependent world with a globalized, fast-growing economy, highly dependent on fossil fuels. (Major challenge in climate protection and minor challenge in climate adaptation)
The SSP-RCP-SPA framework ¶
The global SSP-RCP-SPA framework consists of various components: (i) the 5 SSP narratives (ii) the associated input tables (semi-quantitative description of the key factors) (iii) the Basic Elements (quantifications of GDP, population and urbanization), (iv) the Baseline Scenarios (IAMs), (v) the Shared Policy Assumptions (SPAs), (vi) the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and (vii) the Mitigation Scenarios.
The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were already developed for the 5th IPCC. They define changes in radiative forcing compared to the pre-industrial era by the end of the 21st century (e.g. RCP 2.6 shows an increase in radiative forcing of 2.6 W/m2 in 2100 compared to 1850).
The modeled radiative forcing of the SSP baseline scenarios (which do not include any additional climate mitigation measures) reach a range of radiative forcing between RCP 6.0 and 8.5 in 2100. If the SSPs are combined with different SPAs, different RCP levels can be achieved depending on the baseline scenario. This allows the effectiveness of different climate policies to be demonstrated and modeled (mitigation scenarios).