About influencers, super-forecasters, group discussions, and majority voting in avalanche forecasting at SLF.
Increasingly sophisticated algorithms have already become part of our lives. This development is also starting to extend to avalanche forecasting. It is starting to impact our work as forecasters and will eventually also influence our forecast products.
The operational model chain at SLF now encompasses the physical snow-cover model SNOWPACK but also recently developed machine-learning models. These models deliver predictions on various aspects relevant to regional avalanche forecasting, such as the likelihood of dry-snow or wet-snow avalanches in a region, snowpack instability, and the danger level. Taking the perspective of the avalanche forecaster, I will share examples to underscore the potential advantages and challenges associated with utilizing these models in operational avalanche forecasting at SLF.
(for medium-term forecasts, Richardson, et al., 2017), teleconnections (for long-term forecasts, Butler, et al., 2019) and spatial and temporal variability in the quality of the forecast? possibilities for [...] with predictions since 2012. Completed analysis monthly forecasts have been recalculated for the years 2012 - 2108 Implementation of forecast improvement methods (pre- and post-processing) Monhart, et [...] post-processing methods for monthly forecasts, which have been applied for the year 2018 in Switzerland Statistical Analyses – Verification The skill of the monthly forecasts of hydrological relevant variables
avalanche forecasters to better aligning the content of avalanche forecasts with the needs and capabilities of users. Activities within WSL Fellowship ¶ To be effective, avalanche forecasts need to provide [...] of the information presented in the Swiss avalanche forecast in detail, discuss the results and their implications with the avalanche forecasting team, and support the design of a long-term strategy for [...] understanding the needs and capabilities of avalanche forecast users and integrating this information into the design of future avalanche forecast products. Cooperation within WSL ¶ Internal contacts ¶
The main objective of SnowInflow is to reduce errors in inflow forecasts for hydropower producers during the critical snowmelt period. SLF will contribute with improved physics-based snow models and associated data assimilation schemes.
Climate change exacerbates drought-related extremes, with significant ecological, economic, and human health impacts. MaLeFiX project is developing an interdisciplinary platform that will provide comprehensive four-week forecasts of drought-related extremes – buying stakeholders valuable time to act.
The best avalanche forecasts are worth little if users are unable to understand and apply the provided information in their risk management practices. While it is well established in the risk communication community that an in-depth understanding of the needs and skills of the target audience is critical for effective communication, avalanche safety research has traditionally focused mainly on improving the accuracy of avalanche forecasts and did not pay much attention to how the information is interpreted and applied
energy transition, it’s essential for weather and climate forecasters to be able to accurately predict what happens to fallen snow. But most forecasting models used today don’t factor in certain aspects of [...] example avalanche forecastings or calculate present or future snow water resources.Today, a team of EPFL and SLF scientists have coupled SNOWPACK with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which [...] is planning to add features of the model to ICON, their forecast model. “We’re laying the groundwork for the next generation of weather forecasts,” says Michael Lehning, head of the research group snow
The data for avalanche forecasting need to be accessible in high quality as soon as these become available. Any measurement errors, anomalies and data gaps diminish forecast accuracy. We aim to develop algorithms for real-time data cleansing by applying state-of-the-art machine learning approaches.
snowmelt and weather forecasting models. This allows us to calculate how much snowmelt will run off in the coming days. Identifying floods in good time We have been running a flood forecasting system since September [...] Forecasting floods In Switzerland, flooding causes material damage amounting to several hundred million francs on average every year. This is why we develop computer models and monitor water inflows so [...] so that we can forecast floods and issue warnings in good time. Flooding 2005: Grossmatt near Lake Sarnen (Canton Obwalden). Image: Swiss Air Force Floods past and present provide an opportunity to understand
snowmelt runoff forecasts. This involves calculating how much snowmelt runoff can be expected over the next few days. Of course, these forecasts stand or fall with the accuracy of the weather forecast.For whom [...] important?
For a wide range of users. For example, the snowmelt runoff forecasts are of interest to anyone involved in hydrological forecasting and flood warning. Ongoing analyses of the available snow water [...] Service (OSHD) of the WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF has been providing regular forecasts of, among other things, how much snow there is in Switzerland and how much snowmelt runoff can be
based both on meteorological (several days) and seasonal (several months) forecasts. This new tool will provide forecasting information that can be used by ski area operators (eg snow depths / heights) [...] for climate services. In addition to the latest generation weather forecasts, the project will also rely on new seasonal forecasting services developed at European level under the Copernicus Climate Change [...] precise information on the uncertainty of the forecast and the expected impact of operational decisions taken at various times of the season
Forecasts will have to take account of the local conditions
Lenzerheide supplies data that is used to make forecasts and provides input regarding relevant information for ski resort operators.
Increasingly accurate forecasts
Various instruments can already provide relatively [...] News SLFThe EU-funded PROSNOW project aims to provide innovative meteorological and climatological forecasts to optimise snow management in ski resorts. As part of an international research consortium, the [...] SLF, which is developing the PROSNOW analysis tool. The tool can also be used to make short-term forecasts, which in turn would help operators to more efficiently make decisions on whether to close facilities
Hydrological Forecasts ¶ Head: Dr. Massimiliano Zappa Contents ¶ Projects Services and products Staff The research group «Hydrological Forecasts» investigates the spatio-temporal distribution and variability [...] flood warning in gauges and ungauged basins. Thereby we try to improve the quality of hydrological forecasts by assimilation of updated observations (e.g. snow cover maps and runoff volumes). Furthermore [...] water resources for hydro-power plants. Projects ¶ Services and products ¶ Staff ¶ Hydrological Forecasts Massimiliano Zappa Group leader Luzi Bernhard Computational Scientist Konrad Bogner Scientific staff
cross-country and biathlon teams. Each support team will be given a map of the course showing the forecast snow surface temperatures during their respective events.The Olympic Winter Games are taking place [...] snow during the day. The modelling of the courses is based on digital elevation models and weather forecasts. Since high-resolution terrain models are not readily available in China, simplified models based [...] verify the gradients of sloping sections of the trails. He then combined the models with the weather forecasts and checked the calculated snow temperatures on site the next day by taking measurements on the
This research aims to explore the predictability of drought at a monthly time horizon in the form of low flow in Switzerland and the European Alps by using machine learning techniques and linking large scale weather patterns with local hydrological events.
is towards the bottom end (‑), more or less in the middle (=) or towards the top end (+) of the forecast level, which more precisely reflects the continuously variable avalanche danger. The subdivision [...] those who engage in snow sports, level 3 in particular spans a very broad spectrum. The avalanche forecasters likewise have been wanting to pinpoint the danger with greater precision for some time. These wishes [...] feasible in the international arena and would serve little purpose in any case. According to avalanche forecaster Kurt Winkler, “One advantage of the new system is that it takes findings of psychological research
weaknesses.
This text has been translated automatically.Forecast for Saturday, February 10, 2024, for southern Switzerland, issued by a forecast model developed with a lot of data and the machine learning [...] 2019 and was initiated by SLF Director Jürg Schweizer. A team of SLF researchers and avalanche forecasters worked on it together with colleagues from the Swiss Data Science Center. For two years, physicist [...] team is currently developing the project further and wants to better combine human and machine forecasts in the future. "This also includes a more intuitive presentation of the results for the avalanche
led to inaccurate forecasts in the past.
So he improved the computer model so that it now predicts the water content in the snow cover more precisely. On this basis, today's forecasts of the amount of water [...] be free of snow? Researchers at the SLF have used high-resolution satellite data to make their forecasting models even more precise. "One specific challenge is ensuring that the snow cover in the models
effectively than before, enabling more precise predictions of snowmelt, but also more accurate climate forecasts.Meltwater from snow makes an important contribution to water supply, and melting snow also triggers [...] Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research (SLF) have succeeded in significantly improving snowmelt forecasts in forested areas. Measurements and computer modelling both have a key role to play: Ground, drone [...] now make much more precise snowmelt predictions. On the one hand, this will help to improve the forecasts of the operational snow-hydrological service (OSHD), which are relevant for flood warnings
help prevent avalanche accidents, you should find out about the avalanche danger, check the weather forecast, plan your trip carefully, and ensure you have the right equipment and training.On average, one [...] therefore recommends that snowshoers always ascertain the current avalanche danger, check the weather forecast, carry the right kit (including the standard emergency equipment of avalanche transceiver, shovel [...] designed as an informed warning. It is published twice daily in winter and primarily contains a forecast of the avalanche danger. White Risk app: White Risk is the app for all those who engage in
and forecasting floods ¶ In Switzerland, flooding causes damages costing on average over three hundred million Swiss francs per year. To prevent increasing damages, we need hazard maps, forecasts, protective [...] studying small torrent catchments for over fifty years. Contact ¶ Research Groups Hydrological forecasts Hydrology & climate impacts in mountain regions Snow hydrology Publications ¶ Projects ¶ Services
engineering schools in Paris. My research focuses on methods to improve flood and drought forecasting, to communicate forecast uncertainty and to inform decision making in water resources management under present
Development of a data-driven nearest neighbour model for the daily forest fire danger rating which may be used by the operators as second opinion provider.
ion forecasts, which are key input sources for snowpack models. These are used by the SLF to facilitate an assessment of natural hazards, such as avalanches and flooding, and to produce forecasts for winter [...] depositing of snow on the ground on the other, the researchers are seeking to improve precipitation forecasts for mountain regions. “Our measurement campaign seeks to intensively integrate cloud and snow research
movements, yet there are no established guidelines for incorporating this understanding into landslide forecasting or debris-flow models. The objectives of this project are to advance methods for using hydrology [...] researchers across Europe to develop strategies for integrating hydrologic data to improve landslide forecasting. Lastly, I learned from WSL staff about the Swiss national landslide occurrence and damage databases
animals and humans. In early summer, ozone levels rise, as is shown in the newspapers with the weather forecast - but does that tell us enough? With this quiz you can test your knowledge about ozone and probably
snow and avalanches for nearly 40 years as a professional ski patroller, backcountry avalanche forecaster, and avalanche researcher. Activities within WSL Fellowship ¶ This project is being conducted in [...] to stabilize in the minutes and hours following loading events, and will hopefully help us better forecast changes in avalanche conditions during this critical time period. Cooperation within WSL ¶ Internal
Avalanche reports, weather forecasts, snow profiles, avalanche activity and blogs on the current conditions: Avalanche Information for the Scottish Mountains The SLF avalanche forecaster Benjamin Zweifel filed [...] What is the purpose of avalanche warning experts getting together?
Why would a Swiss avalanche forecaster spend time in Scotland? We possess sufficient mountain resources here at home for learning the [...] has the opportunity to find out about advanced techniques for analysing weak layers, and a Swiss forecaster in Scotland can gain experience in responding to rapidly changing weather conditions. Norwegians
News SLFAmerican scientists are studying processes just above the snow surface in order to improve forecasts of drinking water availability. The SLF is assisting them with measurement technology and knowledge [...] improve models for estimating future drinking water supplies. "They will also make it possible to forecast floods and predict hydropower plant potential," explains Haugeneder. Furthermore, the processes
melt forecasts. The goal is to enable hydropower plant operators to optimise electricity production while generating a profit. The relevant decision-making aids are based on extended-range forecasts (HEPS4Power) [...] (HEPS4Power) and decade-spanning forecasts covering periods up to ten years. All the models developed by the researchers are designed for alpine regions. Conflict between electricity and snowmaking Hydropower
Understanding the mechanical properties of snow is crucial to accurately predict avalanches, as it provides critical information about the stability and behavior of snowpacks in different conditions.
Climate change already affects snowfall and snow depth patterns in the Alps, and these changes will likely become more pronounced in the future.
avalanches as accurately and extensively as possible is important, e.g. for improving avalanche forecasts or reviewing hazard maps. Normally, information about avalanches comes from reports by individual [...] satellite images also afford an overview of resulting forest damage and serve to check danger levels forecast in the avalanche bulletin and improve avalanche simulation models such as RAMMS.
The satellite mapping
warning system to refine its forecasts. In addition, avalanche researchers would like to establish exactly when events happened with a view to enhancing their forecasting models.Existing fibre optic telecoms
Switzerland as a result of climate change. Our research is creating a knowledge base for better forecasts and adaptation strategies and investigates the consequences of such events. Contents ¶ Related Topics [...] of climate change, extreme events and natural hazards. Contact ¶ Research Groups Hydrological Forecasts Hydrology & Climate Impacts in Mountain Regions Mountain Ecosystems Snow Hydrology Publications
The invasion of ecosystems by non-native species is one of the largest threats for biodiversity and ecosystem functioning worldwide. To control the spread of non-native plants, it is crucial to understand by which mechanisms they outperform native vegetation.
Domain; and the growth rates envisaged in the 2025-2028 ERI Dispatch are much lower than originally forecast. Without countermeasures, WSL would hence annually spend on average about five million francs more [...] that we will be able to reduce the structural deficit in good time according to current federal forecasts on financial development. But the loss of so many scientific, technical and administrative positions
A major challenge is predicting how ecosystems will respond to climate change. A key knowledge gap limiting our predictive ability is how climate alters the interactions of plants with their enemies.
The project aims at understanding the physiological traits driving the competitive strength of the non-native windmill palm in insubric forests. The work takes place in 6 sites in Spain, France and Switzerland.
trees WSL researchers took a close look at two older studies on the future of beech. The gloomy forecast of one of them will probably come true.
instance, experiments with impulse waves. 2016-2018 Hydrological forecasts for hydropower in high mountain catchments Decadal forecasts for hydropower production and planning of hydropower infrastructure [...] ure in the Alpine environments. 2014-2018 Climate Change and Hydropower in Tessin Forecasts for hydropower production in South-Switzerland taking climate scenarios into account. 2013-2014 New bedload and [...] (SmallFlex) This project assesses the added value of short- (<6h) and long-term (1 month) hydrological forecasts for the operation of a small-scale HP plant in Gletsch-Oberwald. 2018-2020 Climate Change impact
almost exponentially – with ascending danger level.
As set forth in the Interpretation Guide, the forecast danger level applies to slopes whose altitude zone and aspect are both mentioned in the avalanche [...] conditions. In particular when a tour is being planned, it is good practice to give consideration to the forecast danger level; in other words, to select a tour that avoids slopes in the aspects and elevation zones [...] (2021): Avalanche Bulletin Interpretation Guide, graph p. 25Study «On the correlation between the forecast avalanche danger and avalanche risk taken by backcountry skiers in Switzerland»WSL and SLF provide
Snow and Landscape Research WSL analysed the events on behalf of the Confederation. Nowadays, the forecasts it issues together with federal offices help to limit the damage."In Thun, many people's homes were [...] hydrology service at the SLF continuously analyses the snow situation in Switzerland and produces forecasts of how much meltwater and fresh snow can be expected in the short term (see interview) – information
