Prof. Dr. Matthias Bürgi

European agriculture must transform to confront the many challenges it faces, yet there are different sets of values that may underpin future agricultural change. However, we currently lack thorough understanding of the implications of operationalising these plural values for European land systems. In this article, we apply the IPBES Nature Futures Framework to develop a set of three land-change scenario narratives—the Agricultural Futures Framework (AFF)—representing the diverse ways that humans value agricultural land systems: Land for Food and Land for Nature, Land as Culture, and Land for Society. We operationalise the AFF scenarios in the CLUMondo land-change model and simulate how these alternative value perspectives could reshape land systems in Europe by 2050, accounting for future demands for food production, carbon sequestration, nature restoration, and nitrogen emission reduction. We find that significant land-system reconfiguration would be needed to fulfil these multiple demands under all three scenarios, ranging from 18.8% to 37.1% of all European land, with multiple scenarios showing multifunctional pathways in Eastern Romania and Bulgaria, productivist pathways in Poland and Slovakia, and marginalisation/rewilding pathways in Central France and Northern Spain. However, the magnitude and spatial locations of change differ substantially across the prioritised value perspectives, suggesting that these may have large implications for future agricultural development. The AFF framework and our findings are useful for identifying opportunities to reconcile the divisions in values perspectives, and to prioritise interventions for agri-food transformations.

Information regarding the spatial arrangement and extent of past habitats is important for understanding present biodiversity, restoration potential, and fighting extinction-debt effects. European landscapes have changed profoundly over recent decades, with the trend accelerating following World War 2. We develop a proof of concept for mapping historic habitat distribution for Switzerland from black and white aerial imagery compatible with the present-day habitat map. Recently available orthorectified 1946 aerial imagery (1 m resolution) was segmented based on spectral and shape characteristics for training areas (320–508 km²) representing the main biogeographical regions of Switzerland. Initial training data was derived by manual aerial orthoimage interpretation differentiating 15 habitat classes. A random forest model was trained to classify the segments using variables describing spectral information, image texture, segment shape, topography, climate, and anthropogenic influence. Classification accuracy was improved with additional training samples derived in a stepwise approach, applying three different sampling techniques. Highest class accuracies (producer's and user's accuracies ≥ 0.75) were achieved for the habitats ‘Standing water’, ‘Flowing water’, ‘Glaciers, permanent ice and snow’, and ‘Forests and other wooded land’. Particularly low user's accuracies were found for ‘Wetlands’, ‘Hedges and tree rows’ and ‘Buildings’. The comparison to independent data further revealed minor differences in overall accuracy for the three different sampling strategies. Yet, map predictions sometimes varied substantially, indicating that the sampling strategies address different classification issues. Hence, we conclude that combining different sampling strategies for training data collection has the potential to improve the mapping, particularly in the case of multi-class classifications.

Alpine forests have been part of a pastoral landscape in many regions for centuries. In the nineteenth century, a professional forestry service developed, and the local needs for specific forest uses were supplemented by non-local actors with their specific interests. Using the example of an Alpine valley in Switzerland, the development of the different demands of the stakeholders and their effects on forest development were analysed using an interdisciplinary multi-source approach. Forest history studies contribute to a better understanding of the development of the current situation and provide an important basis for the search for sustainable forest utilisation concepts for the future.

Los bosques alpinos han sido parte de un paisaje pastoril en muchas regiones a lo largo de siglos. En el siglo XIX, se desarrolló un servicio profesional de silvicultura, y las necesidades locales de usos forestales específicos se suplementaron por actores no locales con sus intereses particulares. Usando el ejemplo de un valle alpino en Suiza, el desarrollo de diferentes demandas de los gestores y sus efectos sobre la dinámica del bosque fueron analizados usando un enfoque interdisciplinario con múltiples fuentes. Los estudios históricos de bosques contribuyen a un mayor entendimiento de la situación actual y propocionan una base importante para la búsqueda de conceptos de uso sostenible para el futuro.

Context: Agriculture relies on irrigation in many parts of the world, and the need for irrigation is increasing due to rising demands for agricultural products and climate change-induced alterations in rainfall patterns. However, irrigated agriculture has been found to damage ecosystems and threaten landscape sustainability.
Objectives: Against this background, there has been a recent development towards large-scale irrigation in Spain. The aim of this study is to understand this development at the landscape level and its impact in the context of landscape sustainability.
Methods: We focused on two study sites in Castilla y León using a mixed-methods approach. We studied driving forces, landscape changes, and sustainability outcomes through document analysis, interviews, and aerial photograph analysis.
Results: The development of a landscape-level underground pipe network took place at one study site and is planned for the second study site. Interviewees perceived institutional and social driving forces as particularly influential and technological driving forces as less influential. Political and economic driving forces were often interlinked. The irrigation development tied to land consolidation led to landscape changes, such as the removal of trees and increases in field size. Thus, in terms of environmental sustainability, trade-offs were found, while social sustainability outcomes were mainly positive. The impact on farmers' economic security varied.
Conclusions: For further landscape-level irrigation developments, we recommend integrating preserving seminatural habitats and the structural diversity of the agricultural landscape in planning processes. We also recommend a shift towards more water efficient crops, evapotranspiration management, and a new funding scheme for farmers to offset rising electricity costs.

Current agricultural practices in Europe are increasingly aggravating societal and environmental safety concerns. This creates social and regulatory pressures on farmers, which can lead to declining material and social status of farmers, farmer discontent, and anti-regulation protests. These tensions are rooted in conflicting value systems for agricultural development, which can range from productivist pathways (i.e. valuing production above all else) to increasing multifunctionality pathways (i.e. valuing agriculture for its contribution to multiple economic, environmental and societal needs). It is largely unknown to what degree individual farms and agricultural landscapes are transitioning towards increasing productivism or multifunctionality in practice. Here, we mapped landscape changes and interviewed farmers (n = 274) to examine the diversity of agricultural development pathways in 17 study sites across Europe over the last 20 years (2000–2020). We also assessed the associations between the development pathways and farmers’ perceptions of socio-economic outcomes, namely job satisfaction, societal valuation, and economic performance. Farm-level development was largely aligned with productivist pathways, while landscape-level changes aligned more closely with an increasing multifunctionality pathway. Farmers on pathways of increasing multifunctionality did not perceive improved outcomes on livelihood indicators as compared to productivist farmers. Furthermore, farms on increasing multifunctionality pathways were concentrated in sites with very high management intensities that face strong pressure from environmental regulations, as well as low-intensity, mountainous sites, where opportunities for intensification are limited. These results suggest that current pathways that increase multifunctionality arise mostly by necessity. Successful agricultural transformation will therefore require policy to create enabling environments that provide socioeconomic benefits for farmers to increase multifunctionality, and a civil society and market conditions that value sustainable agriculture.

Sustainable intensification (SI) responds to the concurrent challenges of increasing food production while reducing the environmental impacts of agriculture. As an early disclosure of innovation, patents are a useful indicator of technology market potential. However, we lack understanding of the extent to which current agricultural technology patents relate to the goals of SI and which kinds of technologies can potentially address SI. Here, we analyzed the diffusion and focus of more than one million patents issued during the period 1970–2022. We explored the degree to which the patents relate to SI through the co-occurrence of efficiency and environmental friendliness targets. Our results reveal that while the rate of patent issuance has dramatically increased over the past five decades, the rate at which patents diffused to different countries had decreased over time. The USA was the biggest net exporter of patents and had produced by far the most high-impact patents (in the top 1% most-cited patents). Since 1970, only 4% of agricultural patents and 6% of high-impact patents were related to SI targets (i.e., promoting both agricultural efficiency and environmental friendliness), but the attention to SI has increased over time. The most highly cited SI-related patents had become more diverse over time, shifting from digital, machine, and energy technologies in 1980s to the current era of agroecology, information, and computer networking. Our results provide an early indication of promising technologies that may play a greater role for SI in the future, subject to the challenges of market transfer and farm adoption and complemented by non-technological innovations in farm management and institutional support.

Context: Anthropogenic landscape change is an important driver shaping our environment. Historical landscape analysis contributes to the monitoring and understanding of these change processes. Such analyses are often focused on specific spatial scales and single research methods, thus covering only limited aspects of landscape change. Objectives: Here, we aim to assess the potential of combining the analysis of historical aerial imagery and local stakeholder interviews for landscape change studies using a standardized mapping and interviewing approach. Methods: We compared six agricultural landscapes across Europe and mapped land-cover using historical aerial imagery (starting between 1930 and 1980, depending on data availability, until recent years) with an object-based image analysis and random forest classification. For local perspectives of landscape change, we conducted oral history interviews (OHIs) with (almost) retired farmers. Comparing recorded landscape changes from both approaches provided insight into advantages of combining these two methods. Results: Object-based analysis enabled the identification of high-resolution land-cover dynamics, with scale enlargement and cropland/grassland expansion being the most commonly recurring trends across European landscapes. Perceived landscape changes identified in the OHIs included changes in farm management, landscape structure, and infrastructure. Farmers also reported drivers and personal values associated with landscape change. Combining the two historical landscape analysis tools resulted in a qualitative and quantitative understanding of changes in land-cover, land use, and land management. Conclusions: Comparing physical land-cover change with local farmer perspectives is key to a comprehensive understanding of landscape change. There are different ways the two methods can be combined, leading to different venues for science and policy making.

Grasslands are one of the most widespread terrestrial biomes. In Europe, the majority of grasslands depends on human management, and as a result, grassland areas are facing different dynamics and transitions to other land cover types. This study identifies the trajectories in grassland cover in Europe from 1990 to 2018. Using a 1 km × 1 km grid spanning most European countries, we identified increasing, decreasing and mixed development trajectories of grassland cover. For each development trajectory, we selected four representative hotspots and identified the land cover and its changes over different periods. Our results reveal that the decreasing development trajectory occurred on 35% of the aggregated grids with hotspots in Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean region and the UK. The increasing development trajectory occurred on 20% of the aggregated grids, centred in Central Europe, and the mixed development trajectory occurred on 3% of the aggregated grids. Within the selected hotspots, the development trajectories were linked to transitions among agricultural land cover classes or to transitions with shrubs and urban areas. The development trajectories also indicated strong country-specific differences, suggesting a strong impact of national policies. The generated outcomes of this study can be used to support decision-making on future pathways for grassland habitats on a European scale.

Die Fichte entwickelte sich im 19. Jahrhundert zum eigentlichen Brotbaum der zentraleuropäischen Forstwirtschaft. In ihrem natürlichen Kerngebiet, in der hochmontanen und subalpinen Stufe, bildet sie ausgedehnte Schutzwälder. Stürme, Trockenheit und Borkenkäferbefall führen zunehmend zu Fichtensterben und stellen ihre zukünftige Entwicklung und Bewirtschaftung im Klimawandel in Frage.

In recent decades, there has been a growing number of studies exploring the historical dimensions of the interconnectedness of human societies and the environment. A core approach in this field is historical ecology. We analyzed 544 historical-ecological papers to assess patterns and trends in the field. We found a high degree of interdisciplinarity with a focus on local case studies, of periods of fewer than 500 years, analyzing archival sources through quantitative approaches. The proportion of papers containing management recommendations has increased over time. To make historical ecology globally relevant, more effort should be made to utilize studies across languages, borders and worldviews. We call for high standards regarding the use of social scientific methodologies. Lastly, we argue that fostering longer-term studies and assessing the real-life impact of policy recommendations emerging from historical ecology can help the discipline better contribute solutions to the challenges facing humanity in an uncertain future.

Wie verändert der Klimawandel unsere Heimat-, Arbeits-, Erholungsund Alltagslandschaften? Forschende haben wissenschaftliches und lokales Wissen zu Szenarien der Landschaftsentwicklung unter Einfluss des Klimawandels verdichtet. Die Bilder und Geschichten laden uns ein darüber nachzudenken, welche Landschaften wir uns wünschen und wie unser heutiges Verhalten die Zukunftslandschaften prägen.

Les changements climatiques auront inévitablement un impact sur nos paysages et sur leur qualité. Cela nous concerne toutes et tous. Mais comment faire comprendre cela au grand public?

Der Klimawandel wird die Landschaften verändern und damit auch ihre Funktionen und Leistungen für den Menschen. Die Wissenschaft warnt schon seit geraumer Zeit vor den Folgen des Klimawandels, doch das Bewusstsein hierfür ist in der breiten Öffentlichkeit und Politik noch nicht ausgeprägt. Ein aktuelles Forschungsprojekt nutzt Bilder und Erzählungen zur Sensibilisierung für die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Landschaften und den Handlungsspielraum, den Politik und Gesellschaft bei der Gestaltung der Landschaften haben.

European agri-food systems must overcome structural lock-ins to achieve more sustainable modes of production and consumption. Yet European regions are highly diverse, and we lack understanding of how different regional characteristics may enable or inhibit sustainability transitions. This hinders the development of context-tailored governance strategies. In this paper, we identify and apply sets of spatial indicators to map the regional potentials for agri-food transitions. We first analyse the strength of lock-in to the incumbent agro-industrial paradigm. We then map the enabling environments for two alternative agri-food networks—multifunctional value chains and civic food networks—that each embed distinct social–ecological qualities of agriculture and food. Results demonstrate a large spatial diversity in transition potential, with stronger lock-ins throughout North and Western Europe and stronger enabling environments for agri-food transitions in Italy, France, Switzerland, and Southwest Germany. We find that lock-ins are strongest in livestock-dominated regions and are associated with higher GHG emissions and excess nitrogen levels. Our study demonstrates the need for coordinated public policies that (1) leverage region-specific transition potentials and (2) enable complementary innovations in market-based and community-led networks.

Das Nebeneinander von baumlosen Wiesen und Weiden auf der einen Talseite und Wäldern voller uralter Lärchen und Arven auf der gegenüberliegenden Talseite, prägt die Landschaft des Averser Obertales. Mithilfe verschiedener Methoden und Quellen wurde die Nutzungs- und Landschaftsgeschichte der letzten 100-150 Jahre im Avers untersucht.

Advances in Land System Science (LSS) rely on the evidence generated by different types of research activities, including place-based case studies, landscape/land-system mapping and synthesis research. However, these activities are usually conducted in parallel, with a lack of integration often leading to important knowledge gaps and limitations. In this article, we provide tools for the application of geographic similarity analysis (GSA), a collection of spatially-explicit methods assessing the degree of similarity between geographic locations, and thereby help to address these limitations. We identify opportunities for employing GSA to support: 1) selecting geographically representative sets of case studies; 2) integrating empirical evidence generated at different scales and levels of abstraction; and 3) facilitating context-sensitive knowledge transfer. The resulting toolbox provides approaches for facilitating researchers to get an enhanced understanding of multi-scale land change processes, as well as supporting land governance in scaling up the knowledge and solutions generated by LSS research.

When addressing land use related sustainability issues, looking to the past can contribute an important layer of information. For this, oral history interviews are a useful approach, especially when written sources are not available or do not adequately reflect the views of certain relevant social groups, such as the practitioners directly involved in a certain land use. This toolkit provides an overview of how to use and implement oral history interviews.

Farming in Europe has been the scene of several important socio-economic and environmental developments and crises throughout the last century. Therefore, an understanding of the historical driving forces of farm change helps identifying potentials for navigating future pathways of agricultural development. However, long-term driving forces have so far been studied, e.g. in anecdotal local case studies or in systematic literature reviews, which often lack context dependency. In this study, we bridged local and continental scales by conducting 123 oral history interviews (OHIs) with elderly farmers across 13 study sites in 10 European countries. We applied a driving forces framework to systematically analyse the OHIs. We find that the most prevalent driving forces were the introduction of new technologies, developments in agricultural markets that pushed farmers for farm size enlargement and technological optimisation, agricultural policies, but also cultural aspects such as cooperation and intergenerational arrangements. However, we find considerable heterogeneity in the specific influence of individual driving forces across the study sites, implying that generic assumptions about the dynamics and impacts of European agricultural change drivers hold limited explanatory power on the local scale. Our results suggest that site-specific factors and their historical development will need to be considered when addressing the future of agriculture in Europe in a scientific or policy context.

Das Leben im Berggebiet ist seit jeher ein forderndes und prägendes Miteinander von Menschen und der Natur. Dieses Zusammenspiel zu verstehen, ist Grundlage für ein tiefes Verständnis der heutigen Landschaft, deren Dynamik und zukünftigen Gestaltung.