Probing the Unfathomable: Physical Climate Storylines of Unseen Extremes
Data:
Luogo:
WSL Birmensdorf, Hörsaal, and Zoom-Webinar
Organizzato da:
WSL
Relatore/relatrice:
Prof. Dr. Erich Fischer
Moderatore/moderatrice:
Gian-Kasper Plattner
Lingua:
English
Tipo di evento:
Distinguished Lectures
Pubblico principale:
all interested in this topic
Recent unprecedented extremes such as the 2023 New Year’s winter warm spell in Europe, the 2022 summer heat and dryness in China and Europe, the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave, the 2021 floods in northwestern Germany and the 2020 Siberian heat anomaly broke previous observed record intensities by large margins. Based on the observations up to the year before the event, some of these record-shattering extremes were inconceivable. Given the exceptional intensity of the event some media outlets and scientists raised the questions whether extremes intensify faster than previously projected based on climate models. Here I address this question and highlight some of the challenges such events pose to widely used methods in model evaluation and attribution. Furthermore, I discuss ways forward in quantifying the potential intensity of record-shattering events and very rare extremes in the near future.