Dr. Dominic Fawcett

The Amazon forest is fire sensitive, but, where fires were uncommon as a natural disturbance, deforestation and drought are accelerating fire occurrences, which threaten the integrity of the tropical forest, the carbon cycle and air quality. Fire emissions depend on fuel amount and type, moisture conditions and burning behaviour. Higher-resolution satellite data have helped more accurately map global burnt areas; however, the effects of fuels on the combustion process and on the composition of fire emissions remain uncertain in current fire emissions inventories. By using multiple Earth observation-based approaches, here we show that total fire emissions in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes are dominated by smouldering combustion of woody debris. The representation of woody debris and surface litter presents a critical uncertainty in fire emissions inventories and global vegetation models. For the fire season 1 August to 31 October 2020, for which all approaches are available, we found 372⁶⁰⁵₂₇₇ Tg(median and range across approaches) of dry matter burnt, corresponding to carbon monoxide emissions of39.1⁵⁹₂₇ Tg. Our results emphasize how Earth observation approaches for fuel and fire dynamics and of atmospheric trace gases reduce uncertainties of fire emission estimates. The findings enable diagnosing the representation of fuels, wildfire combustion and its effects on atmospheric composition and the carbon cycle in global vegetation–fire models.

The Amazon is the largest continuous tropical forest in the world and plays a key role in the global carbon cycle. Human-induced disturbances and climate change have impacted the Amazon carbon balance. Here we conduct a comprehensive synthesis of existing state-of-the-art estimates of the contemporary land carbon fluxes in the Amazon using a set of bottom-up methods (i.e., dynamic vegetation models and bookkeeping models) and a top-down inversion (atmospheric inversion model) over the Brazilian Amazon and the whole Biogeographical Amazon domain. Over the whole biogeographical Amazon region bottom-up methodologies suggest a small average carbon sink over 2010-2020, in contrast to a small carbon source simulated by top-down inversion (2010-2018). However, these estimates are not significantly different from one another when accounting for their large individual uncertainties, highlighting remaining knowledge gaps, and the urgent need to reduce such uncertainties. Nevertheless, both methodologies agreed that the Brazilian Amazon has been a net carbon source during recent climate extremes and that the south-eastern Amazon was a net land carbon source over the whole study period (2010-2020). Overall, our results point to increasing human-induced disturbances (deforestation and forest degradation by wildfires) and reduction in the old-growth forest sink during drought.

Uncovering the mechanisms that lead to Amazon forest resilience variations is crucial to predict the impact of future climatic and anthropogenic disturbances. Here, we apply a previously used empirical resilience metrics, lag-1 month temporal autocorrelation (TAC), to vegetation optical depth data in C-band (a good proxy of the whole canopy water content) in order to explore how forest resilience variations are impacted by human disturbances and environmental drivers in the Brazilian Amazon. We found that human disturbances significantly increase the risk of critical transitions, and that the median TAC value is ~2.4 times higher in human-disturbed forests than that in intact forests, suggesting a much lower resilience in disturbed forests. Additionally, human-disturbed forests are less resilient to land surface heat stress and atmospheric water stress than intact forests. Among human-disturbed forests, forests with a more closed and thicker canopy structure, which is linked to a higher forest cover and a lower disturbance fraction, are comparably more resilient. These results further emphasize the urgent need to limit deforestation and degradation through policy intervention to maintain the resilience of the Amazon rainforests.